Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
A new white paper released by the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government reveals that Tamil Nadu's direct debt has nearly doubled to an alarming 10 trillion in the past five years, exposing significant fiscal strain and a substantial debt burden on every citizen.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
Pakistan has increased its defence budget by 17.6 per cent to PKRs 3,000 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, as announced by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The federal budget, estimated at PKRs 18,771 billion, targets 4 per cent GDP growth, with significant allocations for debt service and pensions. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted economic stability and ongoing discussions with the IMF, while the opposition protested Imran Khan's incarceration during the budget session.
Ashok Lahiri, a distinguished economist with experience in government, the private sector, and electoral politics, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, tasked with strengthening India's reform trajectory and policy-making.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Loss-making Air India has introduced a new 'Basic Fare' category for select domestic flights, which does not include complimentary meals, as part of its efforts to trim expenses amid rising operational costs.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Parliament on Tuesday approved the long-awaited fiscal responsibility legislation after Finance Minister Jaswant Singh promised there would be no lowering of developmental expenditure.
West Bengal Chief Minister Shuvendu Adhikari has directed senior officials to ensure transparency, accountability, and strict adherence to rules in governance. He emphasised the importance of honest opinions and actions for the state's development, urging officials to restart stalled centrally sponsored schemes and implement promises from the BJP's election manifesto.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
Nepal's Prime Minister Balendra Shah addressed parliament on the ongoing border dispute with India, stating both countries have agreed to seek resolution through diplomatic means and expert consultation. Shah's remarks about Nepal also encroaching on Indian territories have sparked controversy.
Air India has temporarily reduced its domestic flights by 22 per cent due to the impact of high fuel prices, following a previous reduction in international flights. The airline is offering re-accommodation, date changes, or refunds to affected passengers.
The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from an earlier 6.6 per cent, attributing the change to global uncertainties and economic shocks stemming from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
In a development that could reshape West Asia's security landscape, US President Donald Trump announced Friday that he will convene an emergency meeting in the White House Situation Room to make a final decision on a broad, multi-part peace deal with Iran.
West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari announced the state government will move the Supreme Court to vacate the stay on a CBI probe into the alleged Gorkhaland Territorial Administration teacher recruitment scam. The decision follows complaints of corruption and illegal teacher recruitment within the GTA.
Amul and Mother Dairy, India's largest dairy product retailers, have increased milk prices by Rs 2 per litre, marking the second such hike in 13 months. This move is expected to intensify inflationary pressures, already fuelled by global conflicts, and will impact household budgets across the country.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Following the swearing-in of C Joseph Vijay as Tamil Nadu's chief minister, the new cabinet has pledged a 'white paper' audit of all state departments and a 'zero-interference' policy in administration, signalling a significant shift in governance.
India has no plans to ration fuel supplies despite ongoing disruptions in global energy markets, according to a top oil ministry official. The country has maintained adequate inventories of crude products and LPG while diversifying imports to manage supply risks.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
India's manufacturing sector experienced a mild recovery in April, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs increasing at the fastest pace since August 2022, largely attributed to the Middle East conflict.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) reports a decline in traditional financial crimes due to sustained investigative actions and government initiatives, while highlighting emerging challenges like cryptocurrency fraud and terror financing.
Under the TMC, Bengal has seen expansion of welfare, but not big-ticket private investment.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first rate hike in over four years. This decision follows a period of stable prices during recent state elections, despite rising global crude oil prices and significant losses for fuel retailers.
A downsizing in the prime minister's convoy was implemented in his recent domestic visits, official sources said.
India's services sector growth reached a five-month high in April, with the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rising to 58.8, primarily driven by robust domestic demand and a shift from international to local suppliers amidst the West Asia crisis.
'...the enormous responsibility and faith the youth has put on his shoulders, that he is going to solve their problems.'
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
